What Are the Chances of One Making a Career in the NHL?

In the recognition of the start of the 2016 NHL playoffs, which is highly popular on Hope College’s campus, since the Red Wings made it to the playoffs 25th in the row, here are the mathematical odds of one actually making it to the NHL.

Every parent of a hockey player likes the idea of their kid playing in the NHL or how hockey players say “in the show.” Hockey is one of the hardest sports to master because body is doing a lot of different movements at once. But what are the odds of making it to the “show”?

They made the 0.02% cut.
They made the 0.02% cut.

The study is focuses only on Ontario, Canada, but we can apply it to the general hockey audience. In the study were 30,000 players. Out of all 30,000 players in Ontario, only 48 were drafted, which is 0.16%.

Out of the 48 players who got picked by some NHL team only 39 got signed to entry-level contracts. This means that players sign for example 2-year, $750,000 contract, but they get the money only if they play certain amount of games in the NHL. So if one get drafted, the chances are 81.25% that one will get signed, not played in the NHL.

But only 15 out of 48 players actually make carrier in the NHL. When I say career, I many 400+ games played in the NHL, which gives us percentage of 0.02%.

So the chances of making a career (400+ games) in the NHL are 0.02%.

Cornelius, Emily. “How Hard Is It to Make It to the NHL?” The Huffington Post. TheHuffingtonPost.com, 11 Sept. 2014. Web. 14 Apr. 2016.
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